The Future Cobbled Monuments Winner Draft
Because Crazy Arvid Went Over So Well Last Time
Well, now that I’ve unleashed my alter egos into the newsletter, I can’t seem to get them back in the bottle.
On Friday, I…actually, this isn’t going to make much sense unless you read all the setup from Friday’s newsletter. So just go do that if you haven’t already.
Today, my focus turns to races at the other end of the spectrum from the grand tours: The cobbled monuments, the Tour of Flanders and Paris-Roubaix. These are races for the biggest, strongest riders in the field. Freezing cold temperatures, road surfaces that are perineum-destroying at best and icy-slick at the worst, and no room for error. Once again, I call on my coauthors, Chucky and Crazy Arvid,1 to draft six riders—old or young, male or female—who will win at least one cobbled monument between now and the end of time. And because I have corporeal form, I get first pick once again.
Round 1, Pick 1 (Mike Prime): Mathieu van der Poel
Obviously. The man swept the cobbled monuments in 2024, won another Paris-Roubaix in 2023…actually, let me put it this way. Since his first participation in the Tour of Flanders in 2019, van der Poel has started every cobbled monument he’s been eligible for—10 in all. He’s won five, finished second twice, third once, fourth once, and never lower than ninth. He’ll turn 30 this coming January, so this run is going to end someday, but I’m guessing he’ll get at least one before before it does.
Round 1, Pick 2 (Chucky): Lotte Kopecky
The sensible pick here is Kopecky, who’s been nearly as dominant as van der Poel. She’s branched out into some serious mountain-climbing shit the past couple years, but she’s still elite in her core discipline. First at Paris-Roubaix last year, plus two wins out of the last three editions of Ronde van Vlaanderen and Strade Bianche,2 plus a world championship on cobbles in Glasgow in 2023. There was a run of about six weeks early this season in which Kopecky entered eight one-day races, seven of them on either cobbles or gravel. She won three and finished in the top five three more times. She’ll win again in the next year or two, I’m sure of it.
Round 1, Pick 3 (Arvid): Tadej Pogačar
Round 2, Pick 1 (Arvid): Fem van Empel
Pogačar here is just a bet on Superman doing whatever the hell he wants to do, forever. I think it’s fair to say his previous attempts to win the Tour of Flanders in 2022 and 2023 threw a curveball into his grand tour preparation in those seasons, so even he might have to choose between the spicier classics races and his Tour de France bread and butter.
But he’s already won the Tour three times, he’s won the Triple Crown, and he’s only 26. So eventually he’s going to get bored, right? Not just go back to RVV, but put on another 15 pounds and try to do his solo breakaway nonsense at Paris-Roubaix. I can see it.
Pick no. 2 came down to three 22-year-old Dutch cyclocrossers: van Empel, Puck Pieterse, and Shirin van Anrooij. I’ve listed them in the order in which they’re most accomplished in cyclocross,3 which also happens to be the reverse order of their road racing accomplishments and/or commitment to this date. Pieterse’s had some great outings on the road, including a stage win at the Tour de France; van Anrooij was third at Tour of Flanders last year and might’ve had a chance to win if she weren’t riding for Elisa Longo Borghini. She’s probably the smart pick, especially if she gets the classics version of what we’ve been hoping for/predicting for Gaia Realini: Liberation from servitude to Longo Borghini.
Van Empel has barely raced on the road, and though her team—Visma-Lease a Bike—has obvious road racing commitments, she was mostly deployed as a stage racer in 2024.
So while smart money is on van Anrooij, remember, I’m Crazy Arvid. Give me van Empel, because here we go big or go home.
Round 2, Pick 2 (Chucky): Lorena Wiebes
I think if you’re going outside a select few riders, the percentage play is to figure that these races do come down to bunch sprints every so often. And the gap between Wiebes and the rest of the field is probably bigger than the gap between the best classics-capable male sprinter—who I guess is Jasper Philipsen at this point in time?—see, we don’t even know.
Round 2, Pick 3 (Mike Prime): Arnaud de Lie
Round 3, Pick 1 (Mike Prime): Biniam Girmay
I think de Lie is the class of the hybrid sprinters. He’s just got so much raw power, I think this is the closest we’ve come to a young van der Poel in the men’s peloton since the genuine article. And I’m betting/hoping that Girmay’s romp to the green jersey at last year’s Tour de France sets up a resurgence in the classics. He’s got the speed to win a sprint but he’s also sprightly enough to get over the climbs of the Tour of Flanders, as long as nobody’s lubed up the cobbles.
Round 3, Pick 2 (Chucky): Wout van Aert
Dude, come on, nobody’s picked him yet? Are we that sure he’s washed? He’s got to break through eventually.
Round 3, Pick 3 (Arvid): Mads Pedersen
Round 4, Pick 1 (Arvid): Cat Ferguson
So I know I’m supposed to be the id here, but even I’m not crazy enough to pass up on such a sensible pick as Pedersen. Last season he was third at Paris-Roubaix and first at Gent-Wevelgem. In 2023, he was in the top five at Gent-Wevelgem, Dwars Door Vlaanderen, Ronde van Vlaanderen and Paris-Roubaix all within the space of two weeks.
Now, what is the mechanism for him beating van der Poel, who always shows up for these races and never crashes or has a bad day? I do not know. But Pedersen is one of the best mortals in this discipline.
As for Ferguson, I know it sounds a little silly to pick a rider who was born in 2006 and only turned pro four months ago. However, she’s the defending junior world champion in both the road race and the time trial, a feat Chloe Dygert accomplished in 2015…but two other female riders4 have done it in the intervening decade. So maybe it’s not that special.
But she won the junior Tour of Flanders in 2023 and finished second last year. In addition to her road racing exploits, she’s a two-time world junior champion on the track and the reigning world junior cyclocross silver medalist. And within two months of turning pro, she won Binche-Chimay-Binche, which isn’t exactly a cobbled classic, though it had some cobbled sections. And the real heavy hitters weren’t there.
But still, it’s a 1.1-rated elite classics race and she’s 18. I’m taking the over, just…generally.
Round 4, Pick 2 (Chucky): Shirin van Anrooij
Well, I guess I’ll take the safe pick out of the young Dutch cyclocross trio.
Last season, arguably for the past two seasons, elite women’s road cycling has been dictated by intra-team dynamics on the two best teams. Longo Borghini had primacy at Lidl-Trek, and SD Worx had utter chaos, all the time. With Longo Borghini and Demi Vollering both changing teams—and going to teams outside the previous top-two—I have no idea how those intra-team dynamics are going to change. But van Anrooij had four top-five finishes in cobbled classics in 2024, including third place at RVV. I feel like if she’s got team support she could win at some point in the future.
Round 4, Pick 3 (Mike Prime): Pauline Ferrand-Prévot
Round 5, Pick 1 (Mike Prime): Puck Pieterse
Crazy Arvid taking Ferguson reminded me of another rider who wasn’t on the radar in 2023. At least not on the road.
Calling Pogačar an all-rounder is kind of an insult to Ferrand-Prévot, who at one point held the senior world championships in road racing, cyclocross and cross-country mountain biking all at the same time. In 2014, she won the world road race championship and La Flèche Wallonne, and came in second in the Giro—all at age 22—but after that she went off and did her own thing. Mostly mountain biking, where she won a gold medal at the Paris Olympics. But Ferrand-Prévot hasn’t started a major road race since 2018.
Well, now she’s back, on a three-year contract with Visma-Lease a Bike,5 and she’s hungry for revenge. I assume, because based on Ferrand-Prévot’s career trajectory, she wouldn’t be doing this unless she was all-in. How will she fare? I don’t know, not just because of the layoff but because a lot of the big races—Paris-Roubaix, the Tour de France, the Vuelta—didn’t have women’s editions the last time Ferrand-Prévot raced on tarmac. So this is kind of a shot in the dark.
So is my Pieterse pick, which closes the door on that crop of young Dutch cyclocrossers, but I can’t let Arvid have all the fun.
Round 5, Pick 2 (Chucky): Elisa Longo Borghini
I don’t feel awesome about anyone left on the board, but I guess I’ll pick the two-time (and defending) champion of Tour of Flanders and 2022 Paris-Roubaix champ. I think certain people have placed too much importance on youth in this thought exercise.
Round 5, Pick 3 (Arvid): Josh Tarling
Round 6, Pick 1 (Arvid): Chloe Dygert
I got a little grief from a commenter in the grand tour draft who pointed out that the crazy Belgian had overlooked Belgian icon Remco Evenepoel, and it looks like it’s going to happen again: Six picks, no Belgians.
But my primary allegiance is not to be my country, but to hot takery. So my final two picks are the biggest, strongest, baddest time trial specialists I can find. Tarling is going to be basically impossible to blow off the roads in the blustery spring of northern France, but we know next to nothing about his racecraft. Actually, that’s wrong. We know he can’t tell when to let go of his team car, if his DSQ at the most recent Paris-Roubaix is any indication.
As for Dygert, she could absolutely truck everyone in Paris-Roubaix if she could stay upright. Miserable conditions, balls-to-the-wall racing, long solo efforts—this is her wheelhouse. Unfortunately, “if she could stay upright” is why she’s still on the board. It is a load-bearing conditional.
Round 6, Pick 2: Jasper Philipsen
If anyone doubted Arvid’s commitment to statelessness, he ignored the guy who finished second in the past two editions of Paris-Roubaix—an extremely famous and extremely Belgian rider—in favor of one rider who’s never entered a cobbled monument and another rider who’s failed to make it to the velodrome in either of his two attempts at Paris-Roubaix.
Round 6, Pick 3: Pfeiffer Georgi
I want to take Marianne Vos, but she’s 37, and her only win in one of these two races came in 2013, when Ferguson was six years old. Vollering, Anna van der Breggen, and Kasia Niewiadoma can all hang in RVV—van der Breggen’s even won it once—but women’s cycling is only getting more specialized, and they’ll all be chasing stage race GCs. They’d all get bounced off the road in Paris-Roubaix. Everyone’s been talking up 2021 world champion Elisa Balsamo as a future Paris-Roubaix winner, but despite her second place last year I think we’re closer to people no longer talking about her that way than we are to her actually winning one.
So I guess I’ll take Georgi, who finished third at Paris-Roubaix in 2024 and eighth the year before that. She also won Burgge-De Panne and Binche-Chimay-Binche in 2023. I do wonder if she’s headed for a showdown with her teammate, star Dutch sprinter Charlotte Kool, if their interests conflict. Or am I so far in the tank for Kristen Faulkner I want to change my pick? No. Not changing. End of draft.
Mike Prime:
Matheiu van der Poel
Arnaud de Lie
Biniam Girmay
Pauline Ferrand-Prévot
Puck Pieterse
Pfeiffer Georgi
Chucky:
Lotte Kopecky
Lorena Wiebes
Wout van Aert
Shirin van Anrooij
Elisa Longo Borghini
Jasper Philipsen
Crazy Arvid:
Tadej Pogačar
Fem van Empel
Mads Pedersen
Cat Ferguson
Josh Tarling
Chloe Dygert
Who is not real, I don’t know what that whistling noise is
Gravel is Italian for cobblestones
van Empel is the two-time defending world champ, Pieterse has two podium finishes in the past two years, and van Anrooij was U23 world champ in 2023 but hasn’t won a cyclocross race since
Elena Pirrone and Zoe Bäckstedt
Which might be a finger in the eye for Arvid’s Fem van Empel pick
I’m starting to think that Arvid doesn’t even like stoofvlees or vol-au-vent!