I think MVDP has learned that in small-group finishes he's got a huge advantage if he can make it a standing-start sprint. See RVV and Paris Roubaix in 2021, where he approached the line with speed and Asgreen/Cobrelli were able to come off his wheel and outsprint him. Contrast that with MSR 2025 and RVV 2020. MVDP doesn't have the best sprint once the group is up to speed, but if it's about a sudden, violent 250m acceleration he's got the advantage, even if starting as first wheel.
Anyway, thanks so much for your coverage of MSR. It's my favorite one-day of the season, and I tend to agree with your points about Pogi potentially making things boring. I'm a massive Pogi fan, but going in my take was that unless Pogi went solo over the Cipressa, I'd root for someone else:
"If Pogi doesn’t make it over the Cipressa alone, then it’s time to move on. For a rider that has basically accomplished everything in the sport he’s wanted to - and is still only 26 - there’s something beautiful about MSR being the one race he so desperately wants but can’t crack. So if it isn’t a majestic, first-time-in-30-years attack over the Cipressa, I’d rather he fall short again. Let MSR become his chimera. Let the tension continue to build over the years. Let us watch the greatest cyclist of all-time struggle with at least one race, flounder for at least a few years more."
I think Pog was hanging back to get a run up to Ganna's wheel, surprise them both and get enough of a gap to hold to the finish. But, VDP thwarted it tactically, first, by swinging left and being fortunate that Ganna didn't follow, and then by jumping before Pog could. If VDP had played it by the book-- i.e. if you're on the front you wait as long as you can to sprint so no one has enough road to come around you-- Pog might have gotten enough of a jump to hold on. I think this was his only shot in this 3-up.
What Pog could have done differently, I think, is not work as much so Ganna would catch up sooner, then he and Ganna could have traded attacks and force MVDP to cover them until one of them got away.
The other thing that might have improved his chances is have someone like Del Toro blast up the Cipressa (at Pogi speed, just for less time) from the base. That would have done damage to MVDP and Ganna, but less to Pog that what he inflicted on himself with his attack. Then he would have been marginally fresher than the other two when he finally attacked. (i.e., behind Del Toro he'd have a brief draft that he didn't have by attacking solo; the team lead out he got from, iirc, Pollitt, just wasn't violent enough).
I think MVDP has learned that in small-group finishes he's got a huge advantage if he can make it a standing-start sprint. See RVV and Paris Roubaix in 2021, where he approached the line with speed and Asgreen/Cobrelli were able to come off his wheel and outsprint him. Contrast that with MSR 2025 and RVV 2020. MVDP doesn't have the best sprint once the group is up to speed, but if it's about a sudden, violent 250m acceleration he's got the advantage, even if starting as first wheel.
Anyway, thanks so much for your coverage of MSR. It's my favorite one-day of the season, and I tend to agree with your points about Pogi potentially making things boring. I'm a massive Pogi fan, but going in my take was that unless Pogi went solo over the Cipressa, I'd root for someone else:
"If Pogi doesn’t make it over the Cipressa alone, then it’s time to move on. For a rider that has basically accomplished everything in the sport he’s wanted to - and is still only 26 - there’s something beautiful about MSR being the one race he so desperately wants but can’t crack. So if it isn’t a majestic, first-time-in-30-years attack over the Cipressa, I’d rather he fall short again. Let MSR become his chimera. Let the tension continue to build over the years. Let us watch the greatest cyclist of all-time struggle with at least one race, flounder for at least a few years more."
I think Pog was hanging back to get a run up to Ganna's wheel, surprise them both and get enough of a gap to hold to the finish. But, VDP thwarted it tactically, first, by swinging left and being fortunate that Ganna didn't follow, and then by jumping before Pog could. If VDP had played it by the book-- i.e. if you're on the front you wait as long as you can to sprint so no one has enough road to come around you-- Pog might have gotten enough of a jump to hold on. I think this was his only shot in this 3-up.
What Pog could have done differently, I think, is not work as much so Ganna would catch up sooner, then he and Ganna could have traded attacks and force MVDP to cover them until one of them got away.
The other thing that might have improved his chances is have someone like Del Toro blast up the Cipressa (at Pogi speed, just for less time) from the base. That would have done damage to MVDP and Ganna, but less to Pog that what he inflicted on himself with his attack. Then he would have been marginally fresher than the other two when he finally attacked. (i.e., behind Del Toro he'd have a brief draft that he didn't have by attacking solo; the team lead out he got from, iirc, Pollitt, just wasn't violent enough).
Really fun to watch this year!