Everything I Think About Paris-Roubaix
In chunks of 75 words or less
I was a bad boy this week. Through a combination of poor time management and overrwriting what could’ve been short blog posts at my day job, I’ve come to 9 p.m. on Thursday evening with nothing in the CMS. Good thing this isn’t a paid newsletter anymore.
To be honest, I might’ve phoned it in and canceled this week’s newsletter, but this is Holy Week, arguably the most important week on the cycling calendar, as we’re currently sandwiched between two monuments. At the Tour of Flanders, Tadej Pogačar faced about as stiff a challenge as could be mustered: A white-hot Mads Pedersen, an unshakeable Mathieu van der Poel, and Wout van Aert at the head of an armada of Visma-Lease a Bike riders. Generally, I think the non-Pogačar competitors played it pretty well, some late-race desperation from Wout notwithstanding. Clearly it didn’t matter, as Pogačar won anyway.
The women’s race came down to a final group of four: Lotte Kopecky, Pauline Ferrand-Prévot,1 Lianne Lippert, and Kasia Niewiadoma. Kopecky was the strongest rider, and won the sprint. I think Niewiadoma could’ve done more to put pressure on her before it came down to a sprint that Kopecky was sure to win, but again, I don’t know how much it was going to matter.
It was funny to see posts and views before the weekend about how rare it is for the world champion to win the Tour of Flanders in the rainbow jersey, only for both world champs to win their respective races.
In the interest of still putting out a newsletter that’s worth reading, but not staying up all night writing, here’s what I’m going to do: No frills, no jokes, no structure. Just a list of opinions I have about this weekend’s Paris-Roubaix races, in no particular order. And because I can’t help myself form going long, I’m going to stop writing abruptly whenever one of these thoughts hits 75 words.
If Pogačar wins, he’s the greatest of all time. He’ll win the Vuelta whenever he feels like it, and probably Milan-San Remo at some point, and that’s the full set. Halfway through his age-26 season, Pogačar has four Grand Tour GC wins, 26 stages, and eight monuments. He could get to five, 30+ and 10 by the year’s end, and Eddy Merckx (who holds the record for all three) is at 11, 64 and 19.
I don’t think he’ll win. Paris-Roubaix is just such a different animal to any other monument, including Ronde van Vlaanderen. The roads are so much rougher, there’s no climbing, the pace is slower so drafting and teamwork matters less. The Oude Kwaremont isn’t a big climb, but Pogačar wouldn’t have ditched van der Poel without it.
For that matter, I’m not sure he would’ve been able to drop Pedersen and the Visma-Lease a Bike boys.
Sometimes I tell my wife what happened in bike races, whether she wants to know or not. I dunno, she watched Pedal to Survive and thought it was interesting. But she didn’t know about the yellow Dutch team’s new name and thought I was saying “Visma Lisa Bike,” like Lisa Simpson.
I don’t know if that counts as a mondegreen or an eggcorn.
I mentioned that Paris-Roubaix is its own animal; one way you can tell is the women’s field. Ordinarily the women’s peloton isn’t that specialized. The big names race everything from Ronde van Vlaanderen to the Tour de France. But the GC riders and puncheurs want nothing to do with Paris-Roubaix. They took one look at those cobbles and said “fuck that noise.”
Which probably lends itself to another Kopecky win. Last year’s wasn’t that easy, but she’s one of very few female riders with (and I apologize for putting it this way) the juice to make explosive moves and the beef to get over the big rocks for 148 kilometers.
With most of the big stars sitting this one out, I think Canyon-SRAM has a fun lineup: Chloe Dygert, Zoe Bäckstedt, Chiarran Consonni. Consonni is on a run of four straight top-five finishes in Belgian classics, and Dygert is in really good form right now—she just hasn’t had the right parcours fall into her lap yet.
The men’s version of this is Ineos Grenadiers, who currently have Filippo Ganna, Josh Tarling and Tobias Foss listed as starters on PCS. If they bring Magnus Sheffield, they could really be in business.
Sheffield’s next start is listed as Amstel Gold, which is a good race for him. But I worry that off the back of finishing fourth at Paris-Nice, he’s going to skinny down and try to become a GC rider. I really hope he doesn’t; the competition for GC is so, so fierce right now, and he’s got such a big engine I think he’d get better results in the classics.
You know who else this applies to? Official Wheelysports Fav Kristen Faulkner, who got a late start to the season after suffering a concussion, but she’s targeting the Ardennes classics and the Tour de France Femmes. Dude, you’re never going to beat Demi Vollering, but you’ve got absurd four-minute power—use that where it counts.
I don’t love Paris-Roubaix, personally, but I really wish American road cycling fandom didn’t revolve so completely around the Tour de France.
Speaking of Americans: No Matteo Jorgenson for Visma this time,2 but Edoardo Affini and Dylan van Baarle are plenty of help for van Aert. I just don’t know if he’s still got the gas to have a realistic shot at winning this.
The other men’s lineup I like is Lidl-Trek: Pedersen, Jonathan Milan and Jasper Stuyven, who rode really well at RVV. That’s a trio that could gang up on MVDP or Pogačar if they get isolated.
Stefan Küng and Kasper Asgreen probably have a chance…maybe not to win, but to podium if they get in the right moves.
18-year-old Cat Ferguson’s been respectable so far this season, but this is a buh-rutal race for a 55 kilogram teenager.
One of the wild card teams is Winspace Orange Seal. Wanna guess what color their jerseys are? That’s right, blue and gray.
There’s a women’s Continental-level team that isn’t at Paris-Roubaix but was at a couple races earlier this year called BePink-Imatra-Bongianni. Their jerseys are purple.
OK, I think that means I’m out of thoughts.
If you’re cheesed off you missed the Tour of Flanders because you don’t get FloBikes, good news: Paris-Roubaix is on Peacock. Coverage of the women’s race starts at 8:40 a.m. Saturday. Men’s race starts at 5:05 a.m. Sunday.
Men’s podium: Van der Poel, Pedersen, Ganna.
Women’s podium: Kopecky, Dygert, Elisa Balsamo.
Who wasn’t slated to race when I did my preview. Such is the peril of writing these three days before the race.
At least not as of this writing
Paris-Roubaix on Peacock is good news? With their stable of Lance apologists and co-conspirators as announcers? Move on, Peacock. Sell your cycling TV rights to Max or FloSports, or any network that isn’t complicit in the death of American pro bicycle racing.